Strategy Analytics

British Pound — Moving Average & Risk Layers

The same sections as the Corn MA page, on British Pound (6B=F). Volatility ranges are calibrated to this market rather than copied from Corn.

Instrument
British Pound (6B=F)
History
2000-10-05 → 2026-07-31
Trading Days / Year
252
Volatility Grid
5–13% (step 1)
Read this before the numbers. CME British pound futures, quoted in USD per pound, so a long position is long sterling against the dollar — not the GBP/USD spot convention where the pair is quoted the other way round.
How this market is calibrated. The volatility factor grid is 5–13%, derived from p10-p90 of annualized 20-day volatility, rounded to a nice step on this market's own history — not Corn's 20–60%, which would be meaningless here. Annualized 20-day volatility percentiles: p5 4.8%, p10 5.5%, p25 6.5%, p50 7.9%, p75 9.6%, p90 11.9%, p95 14.2%. Metrics annualize with 252 trading days per year.

1. Moving Average Optimization

SMA periods 30, 33, 36, 39, 42, 45, 48, 51, 54, 57, 60, 63, 66, 69, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95, 100, 105, 110, 115, 120. Entry when the SMA turns up, exit when it turns down (System A flat, System B reverses short). Returns are percentages of capital on a compounding equity curve.

Total Return By SMA Period

System A (Long Only) vs System B (Long & Short, stop-and-reverse on the SMA slope). Percentage return on a compounding equity curve.

2. Risk Metrics — Base Systems

CAGR, total return, max drawdown, Sharpe and trade count for every base variant of both systems over 6,447 daily bars. System A = Long Only, System B = Long & Short (stop-and-reverse).

Donchian Breakout — Pure Channel

Lookback N grid 20–80 step 3, then 85, 90, 95, 100. Exit on the opposite N-period band break.

NA: CAGRA: Total ReturnA: Max DDA: SharpeA: SortinoA: CalmarA: TradesB: CAGRB: Total ReturnB: Max DDB: SharpeB: SortinoB: CalmarB: Trades
20-1.4%-30.6%-43.8%-0.22-0.31-0.0386-2.8%-52.2%-61.4%-0.32-0.45-0.05171
23-0.4%-10.3%-33.2%-0.07-0.09-0.0171-1.1%-24.9%-41.6%-0.13-0.18-0.03142
26-0.1%-2.7%-35.9%-0.02-0.02-0.0063-0.5%-12.2%-47.9%-0.06-0.08-0.01126
29-0.3%-6.3%-34.0%-0.04-0.06-0.0158-0.8%-18.1%-42.7%-0.09-0.13-0.02116
32-0.7%-16.5%-40.6%-0.11-0.15-0.0256-1.7%-35.2%-53.0%-0.19-0.27-0.03112
35-1.0%-22.9%-45.0%-0.16-0.22-0.0254-2.3%-44.5%-58.8%-0.26-0.36-0.04108
38-0.2%-4.7%-31.2%-0.03-0.04-0.0145-0.6%-14.8%-36.6%-0.07-0.10-0.0290
41-0.2%-6.0%-31.7%-0.04-0.05-0.0143-0.7%-16.7%-37.6%-0.08-0.12-0.0286
44-0.2%-4.7%-27.6%-0.03-0.04-0.0139-0.6%-13.7%-36.4%-0.07-0.09-0.0279
47-0.5%-12.8%-29.9%-0.09-0.12-0.0239-1.3%-27.9%-38.5%-0.15-0.21-0.0379
50-0.6%-15.2%-29.8%-0.10-0.14-0.0237-1.5%-31.9%-37.5%-0.17-0.24-0.0475
53-0.1%-1.9%-27.9%-0.01-0.02-0.0031-0.4%-9.4%-38.2%-0.05-0.06-0.0163
56-0.2%-6.1%-31.2%-0.04-0.06-0.0130-0.7%-16.7%-41.3%-0.08-0.12-0.0261
59-0.3%-7.5%-30.9%-0.05-0.07-0.0129-0.8%-19.2%-38.8%-0.10-0.14-0.0259
62-0.3%-8.3%-28.7%-0.06-0.08-0.0128-1.0%-21.9%-37.8%-0.11-0.16-0.0357
65-0.2%-6.1%-26.1%-0.04-0.06-0.0127-0.8%-17.8%-32.4%-0.09-0.12-0.0255
68-0.2%-5.5%-25.3%-0.04-0.05-0.0126-0.7%-16.3%-34.2%-0.08-0.11-0.0253
710.3%6.7%-20.7%0.040.060.01230.3%7.6%-28.5%0.030.050.0147
740.3%8.2%-20.7%0.050.070.01220.4%10.9%-28.9%0.050.070.0145
770.4%11.6%-22.1%0.070.100.02210.7%18.2%-30.4%0.080.110.0243
800.4%10.6%-20.8%0.060.090.02200.6%16.6%-30.6%0.070.100.0241
850.5%12.4%-21.9%0.070.100.02190.8%21.6%-31.1%0.090.130.0239
900.2%6.1%-25.7%0.040.050.01190.3%6.9%-35.5%0.030.040.0139
950.3%7.4%-24.2%0.050.060.01180.3%8.6%-35.5%0.040.050.0137
1000.3%8.9%-27.8%0.050.070.01170.7%18.4%-36.4%0.080.110.0234

Moving Average — SMA Slope

SMA period grid 30→70 step 3, then 70→120 step 5. Exit/reverse when the SMA slope flips.

SMAA: CAGRA: Total ReturnA: Max DDA: SharpeA: SortinoA: CalmarA: TradesB: CAGRB: Total ReturnB: Max DDB: SharpeB: SortinoB: CalmarB: Trades
30-0.4%-8.8%-35.9%-0.06-0.08-0.01261-0.9%-21.3%-46.5%-0.11-0.15-0.02522
330.2%4.8%-27.9%0.030.040.012390.2%4.9%-28.3%0.020.030.01478
36-0.2%-5.3%-35.9%-0.03-0.05-0.01241-0.5%-12.4%-45.1%-0.06-0.08-0.01481
39-0.8%-19.4%-36.7%-0.14-0.18-0.02238-1.8%-37.9%-46.2%-0.21-0.29-0.04476
42-0.0%-0.2%-27.9%-0.00-0.00-0.00224-0.3%-6.4%-30.7%-0.03-0.04-0.01448
45-0.6%-14.4%-33.0%-0.10-0.13-0.02205-1.4%-31.1%-38.8%-0.17-0.23-0.04410
48-0.1%-3.1%-27.6%-0.02-0.03-0.00204-0.5%-12.6%-32.0%-0.06-0.09-0.02408
51-0.4%-10.2%-32.6%-0.07-0.09-0.01205-1.0%-23.6%-38.0%-0.12-0.17-0.03410
54-0.5%-11.6%-33.9%-0.08-0.11-0.01210-1.1%-25.5%-45.3%-0.13-0.18-0.03421
57-0.4%-10.2%-31.7%-0.07-0.09-0.01225-1.0%-23.4%-40.0%-0.12-0.17-0.03451
600.7%20.3%-17.0%0.120.160.041941.3%37.8%-30.0%0.150.210.04389
630.7%20.9%-16.5%0.120.170.041791.2%34.3%-22.4%0.140.190.05359
66-0.2%-5.8%-21.4%-0.04-0.05-0.01189-0.7%-17.5%-30.4%-0.09-0.12-0.02379
690.3%8.2%-22.7%0.050.070.011800.4%9.6%-34.4%0.040.060.01361
700.1%1.6%-24.0%0.010.010.00178-0.1%-3.6%-36.1%-0.02-0.02-0.00357
750.3%6.9%-15.5%0.040.060.021750.3%7.8%-29.9%0.030.050.01351
80-0.4%-10.7%-23.5%-0.07-0.10-0.02169-1.1%-24.5%-35.2%-0.13-0.18-0.03338
85-0.2%-3.8%-23.1%-0.02-0.03-0.01152-0.6%-14.7%-37.6%-0.07-0.10-0.02304
90-0.4%-9.2%-28.1%-0.06-0.08-0.01160-1.1%-23.8%-33.2%-0.12-0.17-0.03320
950.3%7.8%-25.9%0.050.070.011460.2%4.6%-31.9%0.020.030.01292
1000.9%25.2%-17.1%0.140.200.051391.5%45.4%-26.5%0.170.240.06278
1050.2%6.4%-23.1%0.040.050.011460.2%4.8%-38.3%0.020.030.00292
1100.7%18.7%-25.2%0.110.150.031331.1%33.0%-36.0%0.130.190.03267
1150.6%16.3%-23.9%0.100.130.021261.0%27.5%-29.7%0.110.160.03253
1200.3%8.3%-28.0%0.050.070.011130.4%10.7%-41.1%0.050.070.01227

3. Equity Curve Explorer

Pick a period, direction and ATR profit target (or Base) to see its month-end cumulative return, starting at 0%.

Every ATR profit target is overlaid against the base system.

Loading equity curves…

4. Profit Factor Sweep

An ATR profit target swept 1.5 → 10.0 (step 0.5) for every variant. Target = entry ± PF × ATR₂₀, frozen at entry.

Loading profit factor grid…

5. Volatility-Adjusted Profit Target (Dynamic)

The same sweep as section 4, but the target is recomputed each day from the current ATR instead of frozen at entry, so it breathes with volatility while staying anchored to the entry price.

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6. Stop Loss Sweep

A protective ATR stop swept 1.5 → 10.0 (step 0.5). Stop = entry ∓ SL × ATR₂₀, no take-profit; the position still reverses on the opposite SMA-slope signal if the stop is not hit first.

Loading stop loss factor grid…

7. ATR Trailing Stop Sweep

A trailing ATR stop, distinct from section 6: stop = best price reached since entry ∓ f × ATR₂₀, recomputed daily. It ratchets in the trade's favour and retreats when volatility rises. Swept 1.0 → 10.0 (step 0.5).

Loading trailing factor grid…

8. Stop Loss + Time Stop — Equity Curves

The full strategy: SMA entry, ATR stop loss, and a time stop that exits a trade still not in profit 5/10/15/20/30/40 days after entry. Split into one file per SMA period so this loads in a fraction of the Corn page's payload.

Loading equity curves…

9. Time Stop Only — Equity Curves

The time stop judged on its own, with no ATR stop, against the plain SMA baseline. Each line exits a trade still underwater 5/10/15/20/30/40 days after entry.

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10. Volatility Filter Sweep

Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily returns — the standard deviation of the last 20 daily returns × √252. The factor is a maximum: a new position opens only on a day at or below it, so the strategy stands aside in turbulence. An open trade is never closed by the filter.

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11. Volatility Filter + ATR Trailing Stop

The first combined risk layer: the section-10 filter and the section-7 trailing stop in one strategy, swept together across every combination. The last column is section 7 on its own, so you can read left to right whether adding the filter helps.

Loading the volatility × trailing-stop grid…

12. Volatility Regime Switch

The same threshold as section 10, but acting as a regime switch: above it the open position is closed at that day's close, nothing opens while volatility stays high, and the position re-opens on the first calm day the SMA slope still points the right way — no fresh signal required.

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13. Reset / No Reset

Section 7's trailing stop with the client's 2026-08-04 question on top: after a stop-out, does re-entering beat staying out? No Reset shuts that side until the SMA slope has flipped away and back, so a market that keeps falling leaves the saved profit saved. Reset waits for a new high — the side re-opens when the market closes back above the stopped-out trade's highest high, at a worse price than the exit, so that a reversal is not missed. Immediate is what section 7 itself does, since its entry signal is a state and not an event: the next bar re-enters while the slope still points the same way. Both directions are swept, so System A only resets long and System B resets whichever side was stopped out.

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Source: Yahoo Finance daily OHLC, full available history. Generated 2026-07-31 15:47:58 UTC.